The Airlift Everyone Expected to Fail

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 The Berlin Airlift was one of the most important and successful humanitarian operations of the 20th Century. It stopped Soviet aggression in its tracks and it helped give birth to NATO. But it almost didn't happen, and it was launched on the assumption that it would fail. Even its advocates believed it was only a 'stop-gap' measure designed to keep the situation from deteriorating until a 'diplomatic solution' could be found.

When the Soviets cut off the roughly 2.2 million civilians living in the Western Sectors of Berlin from all food, fuel, medicine and other necessities in June 1948, they confidently believed they could achieve with the Blockade of Berlin what they had failed to achieve in three years of bickering and badgering in Foreign Ministers Conferences: Western acceptance of a Communist Germany. 

The strategy was based on the assumption that it was impossible to support a city of over two million people by air. Although initially surprised that the Allies would even bother trying an airlift, they were not disturbed by it. They were certain that they had time on their side. The Allies, they calculated, might be able to keep Berlin supplied with bare necessities as long as the weather was good and no one needed coal for heating, but as soon as the fog closed in and the days got short and cold, the whole Airlift would collapse. At that point, factories would close, public transport would come to a standstill, people would have neither work, nor food, nor electricity, nor heat. The people in the Western Sectors would therefore start to riot, demanding the withdrawal of the Western Allies, and they would then either have to withdraw in humiliation or use force against the starving population. 

The Soviets saw the second scenario as preferable. They believed that if the West used force to suppress riots in Berlin, that the image of the West – greatly profiting at that time from the launch of the European Recovery Program – would be tarnished beyond repair. Yet, even if the West accepted defeat and withdrew from Berlin in humiliation, this would still reveal Western weakness to the whole world. In short, a defeat in Berlin would show up the Western capitalist countries as paper tigers incapable of defending their own interests – let alone those of Europe.

Surprisingly, Allied expectations for the Airlift were just as pessimistic. Public opinion held that it would not be possible to supply a city of millions for more than one week. The Berlin City Council thought they had just three weeks before the shortages in the city would be so acute that the Soviets would have no need to stage riots – they would break out on their own and from genuine anger and despair. At the same time, USAF pilots transferred to the Airlift were being briefed that their tour of duty on the Blockade would last no more than 25 days. After that, there would “have to be” a political solution.

Even that most dogged defender of the Airlift, Foreign Minister Bevin, was reported to have remarked: “It will never work in the long-term…you could never feed two and a half [sic] million people by air. But it’s well worth trying…even if it fails entirely, you know, it will give us all time to negotiate.”[i] The British Military Governor, General Robertson, likewise thought in terms of “a few weeks.”[ii]  Compared to these assessments, the British Berlin Commandant appears rather positive when arguing that the Allies could hold out in Berlin until October. By then, he expected (just like the Russians) that due to deteriorating weather and increasing demand for coal the Airlift would break down entirely and unrest would force the Allies to concede defeat. 

In the United States, where scepticism was greater from the start, it seemed obvious to everyone that an Airlift could not be sustained for long and so would inevitably fail. As late as July 22, 1948, Clay found himself still fighting significant resistance to the Airlift from both the Pentagon and State Department. In both ministries the opinion still reigned that Berlin was “indefensible” and the Airlift was too expensive. Only Truman remained obdurate, stating: “If we move out of Berlin…we shall lose everything we are fighting for.” Truman emphatically insisted that somehow Berlin would have to be sustained “even if it takes every Piper Cub in the United States.”  

Two themes ran through Allied doubts about the Airlift. On the one hand was the near certainty that an Airlift was technically impossible in the long run, particularly in the winter, and on the other was the assumption that as soon as the hardships became too great the Berliners would choose Communism.  The Berliners shared the Allied doubts about the technical feasibility of supplying a city by air. (Many people believed there simply weren’t enough aircraft “in the whole world” to sustain a city of 2 million.) Yet their deeper doubt was whether the Allies would bother trying. Why should the Western Allies go to any trouble or expense on account of their former enemies? The consensus was that one “had to be a fool” to expect the Allies to even try. 

But America did try and with vigorous British support succeeded. The Berlin Airlift not only delivered 'the goods' to the Berliners, it delivered Stalin a stunning and humiliating defeat. The Soviet dictator was forced to back down -- without any concessions whatsoever. The Soviets did not gain control of the West Berlin, much less the rest of Germany. An independent German state was established in the Western Zones. The Berlin Airlift was a turning point in the post-war era which put a stop to Soviet advances in the heart of Europe, gave rise to NATO and helped foster the EU.  

Lead by a capable, honest and sane president, a United States that still believed in democracy stood up to tyranny -- and won.  Its tragic to see how the mighty have fallen. 

[i] Richard Collier, Bridge Across the Sky, MacMillan, 1978, 66.

[ii] Thomas Parrish, Berlin in the Balance, Perseus Books, 1998, 201.

The Berlin Airlift is the subject of Bridge to Tomorrow, a trilogy of novels starting with Cold Peace and followed by Cold War and Cold Victory.


Standing up to dictators isn’t easy — but sometimes it’s necessary.

Berlin 1948. The economy is broken, the currency worthless, and the Russian bear is hungry. Next on the menu is Berlin. Here war heroes and war’s victims are struggling to come to terms with a world where unemployment is widespread and the wartime Allies are at each other’s throats. When a Russian fighter brings down a British passenger plane, and the world teeters on the brink of World War Three. The defenders of freedom must work together to save Berlin from Soviet tyranny. The first battle of the Cold War is about to begin.

Based on historical events, award-winning novelist Helena P. Schrader brings to life the backstory of the West's bloodless victory against Russian aggression via the Berlin Airlift in Cold Peace, the first book in the Bridge to Tomorrow Series.

Cold Peace is the winner of WINNER of an Independent Press Award 2025 in the category: Political Thriller, Runner-Up for BOOK OF THE YEAR 2023 from the Historical Fiction Company,  GOLD (1st Place) in the category Historical Fiction from the Feathered Quill Book Awards 2024, GOLD (1st Place) in the category Wartime Fiction from the Historical Fiction Company Book Awards 2023, SILVER (2nd Place) in the category Political Thriller from Readers' Favorites Book Awards 2023, a MAINCREST MEDIA Award and a BRAG Medallion. 

Buy Now!

Stopping Russian Aggression with milk, coal and candy bars….

Berlin is under siege. More than two million civilians must be supplied by air or surrender to Stalin’s oppression.

USAF Captain J.B. Baronowsky and RAF Flight Lieutenant Kit Moran once risked their lives to drop high explosives on Berlin. They are about to deliver milk, flour and children’s shoes instead. Meanwhile, two women pilots are flying an air ambulance that carries malnourished and abandoned children to freedom in the West. Until General Winter deploys on the side of Russia….

Based on historical events, award-winning novelist Helena P. Schrader delivers an insightful, exciting and moving tale about how former enemies became friends in the face of Russian aggression — and how close the Berlin Airlift came to failing. 

WINNER OF BRONZE for 20th Century Historical Fiction from the Global Book Awards 2024 

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You know you’re winning when the enemy turns to dirty tricks ….

With the Airlift gaining momentum, the Russians turn to more devious tactics to thwart the forces of democracy. Key players — or their loved ones — are targeted in unscrupulous attacks. Simultaneously, the policy of “collective guilt” has been replaced by “collective amnesty,” enabling former Nazis to worm their way back into positions of power. Yet throughout this dangerous dance with the henchmen of dictators, women are steadily rebuilding Berlin and Germany.

Award-winning novelist Helena P. Schrader takes the reader away from the limelight and into the shadow side of the Berlin Airlift to explore the social, psychological and long-term impact of this seminal event.

Based on historical events, Cold Victory reminds readers that standing up to tyrants isn’t easy — but sometimes it is necessary.

Buy Now!

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